摘要

(資料圖片僅供參考)

聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息75bp，符合預(yù)期。

重申回歸2%的通脹目標(biāo)將使自身保持限制性緊縮的政策立場(chǎng)。

對(duì)未來兩次會(huì)議削減加息幅度持開放態(tài)度，并寫進(jìn)聲明，在發(fā)布會(huì)以前被市場(chǎng)解讀為鴿派信號(hào)。

發(fā)布會(huì)開啟后，鮑威爾落下不少重話，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)多頭丟盔卸甲。

本次會(huì)議無經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)和點(diǎn)陣圖，但視為聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)入政策緊縮二階段的分水嶺會(huì)議。

終端利率可能在12月迎來小幅的提升，加息的節(jié)奏雖然放緩，但高利率的久期被拉長(zhǎng)（Higher for Longer）——直到聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)通脹下行的幅度與速度感到滿意，又或者經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)陷入難以容忍的衰退。

聲明新增內(nèi)容

The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)不斷提高政策利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間將是適當(dāng)?shù)模赃_(dá)到足夠的限制性的貨幣政策立場(chǎng)，使通貨膨脹在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)恢復(fù)到2%。

在確定未來提高利率的速度時(shí)，委員會(huì)將考慮到貨幣政策持續(xù)累積的緊縮，貨幣政策影響經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和通貨膨脹的滯后性，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展。

附：這段表態(tài)可視為聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)未來放緩加息幅度開了個(gè)口子。

本次會(huì)議決定為全票通過。未體現(xiàn)出內(nèi)部分歧。

附：通常聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在政策轉(zhuǎn)向時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)票委意見不一致導(dǎo)致的票型不一致的情況。

經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)與點(diǎn)陣圖

僅季末會(huì)議提供點(diǎn)陣圖和經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)。讓我們期待下一次會(huì)議。

發(fā)布會(huì)亮點(diǎn)

本次議息會(huì)議的發(fā)布會(huì)有很多亮點(diǎn)，比如表情包：

圖：鮑威爾回答“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通訊社”記者Nick提問時(shí)的表情

圖：提到“暫停加息的想法為時(shí)過早”的時(shí)候，鮑威爾的肢體語言非常堅(jiān)定。

亮點(diǎn)問題1：有關(guān)緊縮政策的三要素。

答：how fast（多快），how high（多高）和how long（多久）。

目前聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)加息節(jié)奏有所松口，但是對(duì)終端利率的高點(diǎn)以及高利率持續(xù)的久期問題表態(tài)依然偏鷹派。換句話說，在未來較長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)需要容忍更高的利率環(huán)境。

同時(shí)，鮑威爾直言目前諸位的目光不應(yīng)該放在加息的速率（fast）上了，第二和第三個(gè)問題更重要。確實(shí)12月和1月的會(huì)議上會(huì)開始討論加息節(jié)奏的放緩。

“I"m pleased that we have moved as fast as I have. I don"t think we"ve overtightened.”

亮點(diǎn)問題2：有關(guān)聲明提及貨幣政策的遲滯性。

答：壓垮市場(chǎng)的一段話來了……

Let me say this, it is?very premature to be thinking about pausing. When they hear lags, they think about a pause. It"s very premature in my view to be thinking about or talking about pausing our rate hike.

想著暫停加息為時(shí)過早！直接打臉之前的“轉(zhuǎn)向論”。

亮點(diǎn)問題3：有關(guān)市場(chǎng)和媒體最近關(guān)注比較多的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理”（Risk Management）

答：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的視角下現(xiàn)在聯(lián)儲(chǔ)考慮的是緊得不夠和松得過早，而不是緊過頭和松太晚！

From a risk management standpoint we want to make sure that we don"t make the mistake of?either failing to tighten enoughor?loosening policy too soon.

亮點(diǎn)問題4：有關(guān)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)與薪資通脹

答：沒有出現(xiàn)薪資通脹螺旋，但是一旦出現(xiàn)了，你就麻煩了。目前就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁，恢復(fù)供需平衡仍有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。

I also don"t think we see a wage price spiral. But, again, it"s not something you can -- once you see it, you"re in trouble. We don"t want to see it. We want wages to go up. We want them to go up at a level that"s sustainable and consistent with 2% inflation.

亮點(diǎn)問題5：有關(guān)海外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是否會(huì)對(duì)貨幣政策構(gòu)成影響？

答：依然著力于通脹，說明聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前并不怎么在意全球目標(biāo)，而是優(yōu)先考慮本土目標(biāo)，本土目標(biāo)中，通脹又是最高優(yōu)先級(jí)。

The world"s not going to be better off if we fail to do that. That"s a task we need to do.?Price stability in the United States is a good thing for the global economy over a long period of time.

亮點(diǎn)問題6：加息過頭會(huì)怎么樣？

答：鮑威爾給出了一個(gè)非常明確的答復(fù)，即他不擔(dān)心在緊縮上做過頭，理由很簡(jiǎn)單，加得越多以后降起來也毫無壓力。

Again, if we overtighten and we don"t want to -- we want to get this exactly right.?But if we overtighten, then?we have the ability with our tools, which are powerful,?as we showed at the beginning of the pandemic episode.We can support economic activities strongly if that happens, if that"s necessary.

亮點(diǎn)問題7：你如何看待市場(chǎng)對(duì)你表態(tài)的反應(yīng)？你樂見于大家往好處想嗎？

答：直接潑冷水——我們還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。12月的SEP中點(diǎn)陣圖可能會(huì)指向更高。我們目前非常堅(jiān)定地認(rèn)為必須控制通脹回歸目標(biāo)，我們不想犯下做得不夠多或者半途而廢過早撤回強(qiáng)力緊縮政策的錯(cuò)誤。

So I would also say?it"s premature to discuss pausing. It"s?not something that we"re thinking about. That"s really?not a conversation to be had now. We?have a ways to go.

The last thing I"ll say is that I?would want people to understand our commitment to getting this doneand to not making the mistake of?not doing enoughor the?mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon.

亮點(diǎn)問題8：軟著陸的路是不是越走越窄了？

答：是的……但還是有可能軟著陸的，但是很難。隨著利率越高且持續(xù)高位，路變得越來越窄。

貝弗里奇曲線有異變，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)還是非常強(qiáng)，我們?nèi)孕栌^察。通脹也一直下不來。

we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now, long since by now.?It really hasn"t. Although -- actually it has come down,?but not to the extent we had hoped. At the same time now you see?services inflation, core services inflation moving up. I think the?inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year, without question.

That means that?we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path of a soft landing.?I would say. Thanks very much.

本文來源：智堡Wisburg，原文標(biāo)題：《2022年11月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)FOMC議息會(huì)議筆記：開啟緊縮的二階段》

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關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣政策 經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè) 為時(shí)過早